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Lombardelli's appointment doesn't change our view of when the first cut will be (2/2)

BOE
  • The Bernanke review is currently expected in April, but it will take some time for any of his recommendations to be implemented and new models developed - so Lombardelli will be responsible for part of this process (although the process will probably already have started under Broadbent's leadership).
  • The other big question is will Lombardelli be able to fill the void left from the intellectual leadership of the MPC that Broadbent is thought to have gained over the previous few years. A lot of Lombardelli's roles (until recently) haven't really involved communicating personal views on the economy or monetary policy, so how she deals with the communication side with strong views will also be interesting.
  • Note that Haskel's last MPC meeting will be in August as he is coming to the end of his second 3-year term (which is non-renewable). Chief Economist Pill and external member Mann both also have terms that are due to end following the August MPC meeting - but at present we expect both of their terms to be renewed.
  • We noted in our UK Inflation and Labour Market Insight document recently that the MNI Markets team sees the probability of a first cut in May around 15%, a 30% probability of a first cut in June, a 40% probability of a first cut in August and a 15% probability of the first cut being delayed further. Today's announcement doesn't change that view.
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