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Free AccessLong Ends Underpinned Post-Eurozone PMI
Little to really add when it comes to bond commentary over the last couple of hours, softer-than-expected European PMIs presented the dominant factor in the London morning, underpinning broader bonds. Note that the composite UK PMI print provided some divergence across the Channel, driven by firmer-than-expected services PMI data.
- The former has reintroduced receiver-side flows into ECB-dated OIS (~155bp of ’24 cuts priced once again), with the German curve bull flattening. 10-Year Bunds outperform most regional peers at the margin, with Greece providing the major exception.
- The front end of the gilt curve is a little cheaper on the day given the UK data impulse (focus on commentary re: a strong wage component in the PMI release), with the broader curve twist flattening. BoE-dated OIS isn’t meaningfully different from levels seen early today, with a little over 110bp of cuts priced through’24.
- Tsy yields are little changed to 1bp lower on the day.
- Mixed China economic activity data (firmer-than expected industrial production and softer-than-expected retail sales) did little overnight, with trend improvements eyed.
- Looking ahead, scheduled risk events include the flash U.S. PMIs, initial post FOMC Fedspeak from NY President Williams, continued ECB musings and comments from BoC Governor Macklem.
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Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.