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Long-Term Inflation Expectations Touch New Highs

US
  • The move higher in front-end yields in particular comes as longer-term measures of market inflation expectations have drifted upwards.
  • The 10Y breakeven of 2.97% (white line) is back near recent highs whilst more worrying for the Fed will be 5Y5Y measures breaking higher.
  • The 5Y5Y breakeven is up 4bps today at 2.59% (yellow) whilst the 5Y5Y inflation swap is up 3.5bps at 2.845% (green) having touched a new cycle high of 2.86%.

Purple line showing Fed Funds target rate for Dec'22 implied by FF futuresSource: Bloomberg

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