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Long Term US Natgas Spreads Increasing on LNG Export Potential

NATGAS

Ample US natural gas supplies are weighing on prices in the near term but expected LNG export increases are giving support to longer dated contracts. Front month Henry Hub has fallen from nearly 4.5$/mmbtu at the start of the year to around 2.1$/mmbtu. Steady production, a warm winter and curtail LNG exports have all helped build storage levels and push near term prices lower.

  • Longer term prices however are more supported with summer 2025 and 2026 trading at a premium to summer 2023 with prices up around 4$/mmbtu.
  • New LNG exports projects are expected to begin operations and boost export demand from around the end of 2024 including Golden Pass in late 2024, Venture Global LNG's Plaquemines Phase 1 in 2024-2026, and Cheniere Energy’s Corpus Christi plant in Texas in 2025.
  • Other planned projects which could start in 2026 or 2027 are Sempra Energy's Port Arthur, Energy Transfer’s Lake Charles and NextDecade Corp's Rio Grande.
  • US Natgas APR 23 down -4.6% at 2.12$/mmbtu

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