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'Long USD Trade' Remains Crowded

FOREX
  • The Long USD Trade remains crowded amid elevated uncertainty over the economic outlook.
  • Momentum on the US Dollar this year has been bullish mostly driven the divergence in growth expectations between the US and the rest of the world.
  • With the Fed preparing for tapering and potentially starting to raise interest rates in the second half of 2022, demand for the USD has remained elevated, pushing the greenback higher against most of the currencies.
  • The chart below shows that the net long specs have recently been at their highest level since January 2019.
  • First resistance to watch on USD index stands at 94.62, followed by 94.74 (Sep 2020 highs). On the downside, first support stands at 94, followed by 93.50 (50DMA, LT upward trending support line).

Source: Bloomberg/MNI

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