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Looking ahead of US CPI

BONDS

The European morning session hasn't really seen any big market moving headlines per se, but core fixed income has continued to move lower (albeit now off its lows of the day). There have been new cycle highs posted once again for most maturities across UST, gilts and the German curve.

  • The highlight of the day will be the US CPI print. Given market pricing, we think a print thats higher than expected could firm up 50bp for May even more, and may even start to bring 75bp into question while a miss is likely to see the 240bp of hikes priced in for this year look a little overbaked.
  • TY1 futures are down -0-6+ today at 119-17+ with 10y UST yields up 1.7bp at 2.799% and 2y yields up 3.5bp at 2.537%.
  • Bund futures are down -0.46 today at 154.57 with 10y Bund yields up 3.6bp at 0.850% and Schatz yields up 1.7bp at 0.145%.
  • Gilt futures are down -0.29 today at 118.75 with 10y yields up 2.6bp at 1.872% and 2y yields up 1.6bp at 1.567%.
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