March 15, 2023 02:45 GMT
Looks Through China Data
ACGBs are basically unchanged (YMM3 -0.8 & XMM3 +2.1 ) after initially firming with U.S. Tsys after China Jan/Feb data drop.
- While in aggregate the data confirmed that the recovery was on track, the rates market initially seemed focused on the weaker releases, namely the slightly weaker-than-expected IP print and the unexpected increase in the surveyed unemployment rate to 5.6% from 5.5% (5.3% expected). Fixed asset and property investment were the upside surprises.
- 3/10 cash ACGB curve bull flattens 2bp in line with the twist flattening in U.S Tsys. The 10-year benchmark yield is -3bp (+8bp earlier in session).
- Swaps are at or near session bests with rates 3-4bp lower.
- RBA dated OIS is little changed from pre-China data levels.