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Loss Of Action Party Deals Blow To Centre-Left Election Prospects

ITALY

The centre-left coalition of parties was dealt a significant blow over the weekend as the centrist liberal Action party withdrew from the grouping. Without Action, which commands around 4-7% in most opinion polls, the already slim prospect of the parties of the left gaining power in the 25 September election were reduced further.

  • Action leader Carlo Calenda - a former minister under the gov't of then Democratic Party PM Matteo Renzi - cited the inclusion of the socialist Italian Left party in the coalition as a signal of the incompatibility of the coalition with the Action party.
  • The combined support for parties of the left now sits at around 30%, compared to around 45% for the combined parties of the centre-right and right (Brothers of Italy, League, Forza Italia and others).
  • The anti-establishment 5-Star Movement continues to lose support as factionalism within the party leads to voters abandoning the most popular grouping at the previous general election. The party now consistently polls around 9-11%, from around 17% a year ago and 32.7% in the 2018 election.
Chart 1. Italy General Election Opinion Polling by Coalition, % and 6-Poll Moving Average

Source: Tecne, BiDiMedia, Demos & Pi, SWG, Quorum, Ipsos, Termometro Politico, EMG, Noto, Demopolis, Piepoli, Euromedia, Winpoll, MNI

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The centre-left coalition of parties was dealt a significant blow over the weekend as the centrist liberal Action party withdrew from the grouping. Without Action, which commands around 4-7% in most opinion polls, the already slim prospect of the parties of the left gaining power in the 25 September election were reduced further.

  • Action leader Carlo Calenda - a former minister under the gov't of then Democratic Party PM Matteo Renzi - cited the inclusion of the socialist Italian Left party in the coalition as a signal of the incompatibility of the coalition with the Action party.
  • The combined support for parties of the left now sits at around 30%, compared to around 45% for the combined parties of the centre-right and right (Brothers of Italy, League, Forza Italia and others).
  • The anti-establishment 5-Star Movement continues to lose support as factionalism within the party leads to voters abandoning the most popular grouping at the previous general election. The party now consistently polls around 9-11%, from around 17% a year ago and 32.7% in the 2018 election.
Chart 1. Italy General Election Opinion Polling by Coalition, % and 6-Poll Moving Average

Source: Tecne, BiDiMedia, Demos & Pi, SWG, Quorum, Ipsos, Termometro Politico, EMG, Noto, Demopolis, Piepoli, Euromedia, Winpoll, MNI