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POWER: Losses in NBP, UK Emissions Could Drop UK April Power Product

POWER
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The UK April power contract could drop lower on the day to track losses in NBP and UK emissions. Upward revision of average temperatures in London this week could also weigh on the product.  Spot prices are likely to face some downward pressure for 18 March delivery due to slightly higher wind on the day, with power consumption edging down.

  • UK Base Power April 25 (BFV) unchanged at 87.1 GBP/MWh
  • UK Spark Spark M1 (BFV) down 0% at -9.31 GBP/MWh
  • UK Emissions  Dec F1 down 0.5% at 44.05 GBP/MT
  • UK NBP APR 25 down 1.8% at 102.05 GBp/therm
  • NBP front-month prices are trading in red on the day to track similar moves in TTF surrounding mixed temperatures at the end of the winter season while the market continues to focus on any progress toward peace in Ukraine.
  • Additionally, UK LNG imports have been nominated at 60.44 mcm/d compared to the 5-day flow avg of 63.66 mcm/d, while gas demand -including power – is lower than the seasonal.
  • UKA December 2025 allowances are trading slightly lower on the day weighed down by losses in EU ETS. However, cooler temperatures for the month-ahead are supportive.
  • Wind output in the UK is forecast to rise to 7.93GW during base load on Tuesday from 6.49GW on Monday according to SpotRenewables.
  • Wind will then be at 3.10GW, or an 11% load factor on 19 March – which could lift prices from the previous session.
  • Mean temperatures in London have been revised up 21-22 March and are expected to flip above the 30-year norm on 19 March, with temps remaining higher until 24 March.
  • Average temperatures are expected to drop to 5.5C on Tuesday from 6.45C on Monday and below the seasonal average of around 7C.
  • However, power demand in the UK is forecast to fall to 33.39GW on Tuesday from 33.62GW on Monday, according to Bloomberg. Demand will then drop on 19 March to be at 33.18GW.
  • The 620MW Hartlepool nuke is expected to return to the grid on 23 March at 23:00 UTC.

 

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The UK April power contract could drop lower on the day to track losses in NBP and UK emissions. Upward revision of average temperatures in London this week could also weigh on the product.  Spot prices are likely to face some downward pressure for 18 March delivery due to slightly higher wind on the day, with power consumption edging down.

  • UK Base Power April 25 (BFV) unchanged at 87.1 GBP/MWh
  • UK Spark Spark M1 (BFV) down 0% at -9.31 GBP/MWh
  • UK Emissions  Dec F1 down 0.5% at 44.05 GBP/MT
  • UK NBP APR 25 down 1.8% at 102.05 GBp/therm
  • NBP front-month prices are trading in red on the day to track similar moves in TTF surrounding mixed temperatures at the end of the winter season while the market continues to focus on any progress toward peace in Ukraine.
  • Additionally, UK LNG imports have been nominated at 60.44 mcm/d compared to the 5-day flow avg of 63.66 mcm/d, while gas demand -including power – is lower than the seasonal.
  • UKA December 2025 allowances are trading slightly lower on the day weighed down by losses in EU ETS. However, cooler temperatures for the month-ahead are supportive.
  • Wind output in the UK is forecast to rise to 7.93GW during base load on Tuesday from 6.49GW on Monday according to SpotRenewables.
  • Wind will then be at 3.10GW, or an 11% load factor on 19 March – which could lift prices from the previous session.
  • Mean temperatures in London have been revised up 21-22 March and are expected to flip above the 30-year norm on 19 March, with temps remaining higher until 24 March.
  • Average temperatures are expected to drop to 5.5C on Tuesday from 6.45C on Monday and below the seasonal average of around 7C.
  • However, power demand in the UK is forecast to fall to 33.39GW on Tuesday from 33.62GW on Monday, according to Bloomberg. Demand will then drop on 19 March to be at 33.18GW.
  • The 620MW Hartlepool nuke is expected to return to the grid on 23 March at 23:00 UTC.