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Low Conviction To Start

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Initial weakness in futures was limited and bears didn’t get anywhere near challenging Friday’s low, before a move higher in global peers seemed to provide support.

  • Futures last +20 at 97.01, just below Friday’s high.
  • The bearish technical backdrop remains in play for the contract. Bulls need to force a break above resistance at the 20-day EMA (97.83) and Apr 12 high (98.23) to start turning the tide more in their favour.
  • Cash gilt yields are little changed to 1.5bp lower across the curve, light bull steepening seen.
  • A fresh round of speculation has done the rounds in the local press re: the potential for deeper pre-election national insurance cuts and a reduction in stamp duty paid on houses.
  • Elsehwere, Rightmove house price data was seemingly skewed higher by some of the more expensive sectors of the UK property market. That won’t be a market mover.
  • CBI data and GBP800mn of short-dated gilt sales from the BoE’s APF headline locally today.
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Initial weakness in futures was limited and bears didn’t get anywhere near challenging Friday’s low, before a move higher in global peers seemed to provide support.

  • Futures last +20 at 97.01, just below Friday’s high.
  • The bearish technical backdrop remains in play for the contract. Bulls need to force a break above resistance at the 20-day EMA (97.83) and Apr 12 high (98.23) to start turning the tide more in their favour.
  • Cash gilt yields are little changed to 1.5bp lower across the curve, light bull steepening seen.
  • A fresh round of speculation has done the rounds in the local press re: the potential for deeper pre-election national insurance cuts and a reduction in stamp duty paid on houses.
  • Elsehwere, Rightmove house price data was seemingly skewed higher by some of the more expensive sectors of the UK property market. That won’t be a market mover.
  • CBI data and GBP800mn of short-dated gilt sales from the BoE’s APF headline locally today.