Low Stocks in Focus as Crude Rally Back Up Towards 95$/bbl

Crude oil pushes higher back up towards 95$/bbl and the high from last week up around 95.9$/bbl. Tight supplies and inventory drawdowns due to OPEC+ production cuts are providing upside pressure, while a broader risk appetite weakness and recent US dollar strength offer some downside.

• Brent NOV 23 up 1% at 94.89$/bbl
• WTI NOV 23 up 1.1% at 91.38$/bbl
• Gasoil OCT 23 up 1.5% at 969$/mt
• WTI-Brent up 0.04$/bbl at -3.51$/bbl
• Demand uncertainty is limiting upside with the risk of major central banks keeping interest rates higher for longer as the crude rally towards 100$/bbl has stalled this week. China demand will be in focus later this week with the PMI data release and with a demand boost expected during the upcoming Goldan Week holiday period.
• The latest weekly EIA petroleum inventories data is due out later today with low stocks levels expected to be maintained. Stocks at Cushing falling towards multi year lows and near to minimum operation levels are supporting the WTI-Brent spread up around -3.5$/bbl.
  • Brent NOV 23-DEC 23 up 0.13$/bbl at 1.66$/bbl
  • Brent DEC 23-DEC 24 up 0.39$/bbl at 9.79$/bbl
• The crude prompt time spread is surging higher this week up to the highest since November while the Dec23-Dec24 spread is edging towards the highs from last week as the expected market deficit in Q4 supports a strong curve backwardation.
• Diesel and gasoline cracks found some support late yesterday after seeing weakness earlier this week. The market is weighing tight supplies from low inventories and refinery maintenance against concerns for demand and strong Asian exports. The Russian diesel and gasoline export ban hasn’t provided sustained upside pressure with the measure generally expected to be in place for just a few weeks.
  • US gasoline crack down -0.2$/bbl at 15.34$/bbl
  • US ULSD crack up 0.1$/bbl at 43.88$/bbl