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GILTS: Lower As Tariff Risks Rise

GILTS
CEEMEABulletUKMarketsFixed Income Bullets

Gilts follow peers lower at the open, with increased U.S. tariff risk (detailed earlier) seemingly driving price action today.

  • Futures comfortably within yesterday’s range, leaving initial support and resistance (92.31/94.35) untouched, with the bull cycle remaining in play in the contract.
  • Modest flattening of the curve, yields ~2-3bp higher.
  • 10-Year spread to Bunds flat, as gilts match weakness in German peers.
  • GBP STIRs extend on modest hawkish repricing seen at the open given higher for longer BoE risks that tariffs could present (if the Bank focuses on inflation, not economic growth), showing ~54bp of cuts through year-end vs. ~58bp early today.
  • Expect macro and cross-market cues to dominate ahead of the weekend.
  • Little of note on the UK calendar today, with labour market (Tuesday) & inflation (Wednesday) data headlining next week.
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Gilts follow peers lower at the open, with increased U.S. tariff risk (detailed earlier) seemingly driving price action today.

  • Futures comfortably within yesterday’s range, leaving initial support and resistance (92.31/94.35) untouched, with the bull cycle remaining in play in the contract.
  • Modest flattening of the curve, yields ~2-3bp higher.
  • 10-Year spread to Bunds flat, as gilts match weakness in German peers.
  • GBP STIRs extend on modest hawkish repricing seen at the open given higher for longer BoE risks that tariffs could present (if the Bank focuses on inflation, not economic growth), showing ~54bp of cuts through year-end vs. ~58bp early today.
  • Expect macro and cross-market cues to dominate ahead of the weekend.
  • Little of note on the UK calendar today, with labour market (Tuesday) & inflation (Wednesday) data headlining next week.