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Lower On GDP & Weekly Claims

US TSYS
Bond Market NewsHomepagemarkets-real-timeBulletMarketsFixed Income Bullets

Initial market reaction to the U.S. data leans a little hawkish, with the lack of further deterioration in the labour market (given the Fed’s increased focus on that side of its mandate) and firmer-than-expected second reading of Q2 GDP data weighing on Tsys.

  • Still ranges remain contained, with the mark lower in Q2 core PCE data a potential limiting factor.
  • TYZ4 trades to fresh session lows at 113-28+ but holds above Tuesday’s low (113-27).
  • Yields now 1-2bp higher on the day.
  • SOFR futures also move to fresh session lows on the data before stabilising.
  • The degree of easing priced into ’24 Fed will also be factoring into the post-data move.
  • Fed funds futures continue to price over 30bp of cuts for the Sep FOMC, we will provide deeper colour on Fed pricing shortly.
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Initial market reaction to the U.S. data leans a little hawkish, with the lack of further deterioration in the labour market (given the Fed’s increased focus on that side of its mandate) and firmer-than-expected second reading of Q2 GDP data weighing on Tsys.

  • Still ranges remain contained, with the mark lower in Q2 core PCE data a potential limiting factor.
  • TYZ4 trades to fresh session lows at 113-28+ but holds above Tuesday’s low (113-27).
  • Yields now 1-2bp higher on the day.
  • SOFR futures also move to fresh session lows on the data before stabilising.
  • The degree of easing priced into ’24 Fed will also be factoring into the post-data move.
  • Fed funds futures continue to price over 30bp of cuts for the Sep FOMC, we will provide deeper colour on Fed pricing shortly.