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Lower WTI and GoC Rally Weigh On CAD

CANADA
  • USDCAD has lifted almost 25 pips to 1.361, back towards overnight levels as CAD drifts more towards mid-pack of majors on the day.
  • It unusually comes with no discernible change in the S&P E-mini, but rather WTI taking another step lower (-0.8% on Fri, -2% intraday) and GoCs extending what at first was a very small rally after the open.
  • On the latter, 2YY are -0.5bps and 10YY -2.7bps although still notably underperform the much stronger rally in EGBs (e.g. Bunds -10.7bps).
  • Key short-term resistance is seen at 1.3668 (Apr 28 high), having got close to it with 1.3647 after Friday’s strong US data. Recall that prior to that, latest CFTC positioning showed CAD net shorts widen back from -26.7% to -30.5%, the largest since Apr 18.

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