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Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
BRAZIL
As well as maintaining a strong lead in opinion polling (see: https://marketnews.com/government-assistance-packa...), leftist presidential challenger Luis Inacio Lula da Silva ('Lula') is also backed strongly in political betting markets.
- Latest data from Smarkets gives Lula a 70.9% implied probability of emerging as the next president, well ahead of incumbent President Jair Bolsonaro on an implied probability of 27.9%.
- Opinion polling shows that while Lula is on course to comfortably emerge as the first-placed candidate in the 2 October first round, he is still likely to fall short of the 50%+1 required of the vote to avoid a run-off election (almost certainly against Bolsonaro) on 30 October.
Chart 1. Betting Market Implied Probability of Winning Presidential Election, %
Source: Smarkets
Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
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