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Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
BRAZIL
Latest polling from Brazil ahead of the October presidential election shows leftist former President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva with a sizeable lead over incumbent President Jair Bolsonaro. However, as has been the case with a number of polls in recent weeks, Bolsonaro is slowly but steadily narrowing the gap on his challenger.
- Ipespe poll: Lula (PT): 49% (-), Bolsonaro (PL): 36% (+2), Gomes (PDT): 9% (-). (+/- vs. 2-4 May 2022). Fieldwork: 9-11 May 2022. Sample size: 1,000 (Undecided/Don't Know excluded)
- Political betting markets continue to show Lula as the strong favourite to win the eleciton, with an implied probability of 64.5% that he will win the presidency according to Smarkets. Bolsonaro's implied probability stands at 35.2%. Lula's has declined from a peak of 74.1% on 14 Feb, while Bolsonaro's prospects of winning have risen from a low of 19.2% on 3 January according to bettors.
Chart 1. Betting Market Implied Probability of Winning Presidential Election, %
Source: Smarkets.
Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
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