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Lula Still Leading But Bolsonaro Slowly Narrowing Polling Gap

BRAZIL

Latest polling from Brazil ahead of the October presidential election shows leftist former President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva with a sizeable lead over incumbent President Jair Bolsonaro. However, as has been the case with a number of polls in recent weeks, Bolsonaro is slowly but steadily narrowing the gap on his challenger.

  • Ipespe poll: Lula (PT): 49% (-), Bolsonaro (PL): 36% (+2), Gomes (PDT): 9% (-). (+/- vs. 2-4 May 2022). Fieldwork: 9-11 May 2022. Sample size: 1,000 (Undecided/Don't Know excluded)
  • Political betting markets continue to show Lula as the strong favourite to win the eleciton, with an implied probability of 64.5% that he will win the presidency according to Smarkets. Bolsonaro's implied probability stands at 35.2%. Lula's has declined from a peak of 74.1% on 14 Feb, while Bolsonaro's prospects of winning have risen from a low of 19.2% on 3 January according to bettors.
Chart 1. Betting Market Implied Probability of Winning Presidential Election, %

Source: Smarkets.

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Latest polling from Brazil ahead of the October presidential election shows leftist former President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva with a sizeable lead over incumbent President Jair Bolsonaro. However, as has been the case with a number of polls in recent weeks, Bolsonaro is slowly but steadily narrowing the gap on his challenger.

  • Ipespe poll: Lula (PT): 49% (-), Bolsonaro (PL): 36% (+2), Gomes (PDT): 9% (-). (+/- vs. 2-4 May 2022). Fieldwork: 9-11 May 2022. Sample size: 1,000 (Undecided/Don't Know excluded)
  • Political betting markets continue to show Lula as the strong favourite to win the eleciton, with an implied probability of 64.5% that he will win the presidency according to Smarkets. Bolsonaro's implied probability stands at 35.2%. Lula's has declined from a peak of 74.1% on 14 Feb, while Bolsonaro's prospects of winning have risen from a low of 19.2% on 3 January according to bettors.
Chart 1. Betting Market Implied Probability of Winning Presidential Election, %

Source: Smarkets.

Keep reading...Show less