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Lula Victory Places Focus On Brazil’s Fiscal Trajectory

BRAZIL
  • Given the positive market reaction following the first-round of Brazil’s presidential election, one may assume Brazilian assets may struggle at today’s open. However, the degree to which risk premium was already embedded in domestic asset prices may limit the initial impact and add weight to the potential for a ‘buy the dip’ strategy, especially if there is a peaceful transition of power.
  • Additionally, comments in his victory speech, about the dangers of a divided country, may signal that he could take a moderate approach to governing Latin America’s largest economy. Lula’s cabinet picks now become of vital importance for local markets as participants attempt to gauge the economic expectations of the Lula administration.
  • USDBRL had been consolidating over the course of last week and attention remains on resistance at 5.4286, the Sep 29 high. Clearance of this level would expose 5.5142, the Jul 21 high and a key resistance. On the downside, key short-term support has been defined at 5.1121, the Oct 4 low. A break lower would instead highlight a bearish development.

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