M5S Risks Further Split As Lega Loses Established Polling Lead

Italy's anti-establishment 5-Star Movement (M5S) seems to be risking a major split as founder Beppe Grillo apparently seeks to block the appointment of former Prime Minister Giuseppe Conte as party leader. Politico reported earlier today a blog post by Grillo - the comedian who has few powers within the party but is seen as one of the movement's founding fathers - stating that Conte "has neither political vision nor managerial skills. He has no experience of organizations and no capacity for innovation."

• According to the Politico piece, Conte had sought to take over the party and implement measures including a 5-member steering committee. He claimed this would help the party establish an effective political trajectory, while Grillo stated Conte was attempting to create a 'top down party'.
• The potential split within the party comes at a time when a number of political parties are vying for top spot in nationwide opinion polling. The right-wing populist League (Lega) of former Deputy PM Matteo Salvini had led in every opinion poll since October 2018, until 12 June 2021, when the centre-left Democratic Party (PD) came top in two polls within a week.
• In the two most recent polls, carried out on 25 and 28 June, the right-wing nationalist Brothers of Italy (FdI) has come in top spot. FdI is the only major political party that is not part of Prime Minister Mario Draghi's grand coalition gov't, and therefore is benefiting from becoming the receptacle for protest votes against the gov't.

Source: Ixe, Tecne, Ipsos, Demopolis, Termometro Politico, EMG, BiDiMedia, Euromedia, Noto, Piepoli, MNI

• The emerging schisms within the 5-Star Movement have seen support for the party stall, falling to 4th place in nationwide polls. The significant decline in support for M5S is likely to prove a major factor in the party forestalling a snap general election in the event of the Draghi gov't falling. The next election must be held by 1 June 2023.
• Based on current polling the M5S would certainly lose its position as the largest party in both chambers of the Italian Parliament. Given that senators and deputies can only secure a pension if the parliament lasts its full five-year term, many M5S members expecting to lose their seats would likely do all they can to avoid a snap election, even if there is a major schism within their party.