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Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
MACRO ANALYSIS
The Eurozone flash Q2 vacancy rate, released yesterday, fell to 2.6% (SA terms) from 2.9% in Q1 and a peak of 3.3% in Q2 2022. The rate thus moves a step closer to the 2019 average of 2.35%. Although the Eurozone unemployment rate remains at historical lows (last 6.5% in June) the easing of labour demand has allowed the Beveridge Curve to indicate modest aggregate market rebalancing.
- These dynamics should contribute to easing wage pressures in the quarters ahead, most recently highlighted in today’s Q2 negotiated wages data (though the fall to 3.55% from 4.74% prior was partly due to fewer one-off settlements being struck in Germany than in Q1).
- At a country level, Germany’s vacancy rate fell to 3.2% from 3.6%, while France and Italy’s rates fell a tenth each to 2.6% and 2.0% respectively. SA vacancy rate data for Spain is not yet available on Eurostat, but the NSA series was steady at 0.9% in Q2.
- The relatively more pronounced easing of the German vacancy rate mirrors similar recent trends on the supply side. We wrote a few weeks ago that Germany’s unemployment rate has steadily trended higher through this year in contrast to the other three major Eurozone economies - nicely demonstrated when looking on a Sahm rule basis: https://marketnews.com/germany-sees-greatest-relative-easing-in-european-labor-market-2-2
Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
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