Free Trial

Macro Developments Since May 2-3 FOMC: Mixed Inflation [1/2]

US
  • The single CPI report since the last FOMC saw core CPI inflation come in slightly stronger than expected in April as it nudged up from 0.38% to 0.41% M/M, considering consensus only just tipped from 0.3 to 0.4 on the day of the release.
  • Details were mixed though as the main upside driver came from an even larger than flagged increase in used cars (accounting for a hefty 0.17pps of the change in M/M rates) with the surprise mostly offset by softer volatile items.
  • Perhaps most importantly, key core service ex housing measures moderated to differing extents, but the Fed’s preferred measure excluding just owner equivalent rents and primary rents eased from 0.40% to 0.11% M/M for its softest since July and before that Sep’2021.
  • Some softer details and a surprisingly large normalization in dispersion measures aside, core CPI continued to grow at a fast pace in April with its fifth consecutive rounded 0.4% M/M print.

To read the full story

Close

Why MNI

MNI is the leading provider

of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.

Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.