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Macro Developments Since May 2-3 FOMC: Mixed Inflation [1/2]

US
  • The single CPI report since the last FOMC saw core CPI inflation come in slightly stronger than expected in April as it nudged up from 0.38% to 0.41% M/M, considering consensus only just tipped from 0.3 to 0.4 on the day of the release.
  • Details were mixed though as the main upside driver came from an even larger than flagged increase in used cars (accounting for a hefty 0.17pps of the change in M/M rates) with the surprise mostly offset by softer volatile items.
  • Perhaps most importantly, key core service ex housing measures moderated to differing extents, but the Fed’s preferred measure excluding just owner equivalent rents and primary rents eased from 0.40% to 0.11% M/M for its softest since July and before that Sep’2021.
  • Some softer details and a surprisingly large normalization in dispersion measures aside, core CPI continued to grow at a fast pace in April with its fifth consecutive rounded 0.4% M/M print.
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