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Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
US OUTLOOK/OPINION
- The CPI report for October saw core CPI slow more than expected to 0.23% M/M (cons 0.3) after 0.32% M/M in September. It was helped by an unexpectedly large decline in hotel prices, a typically volatile item, but the “supercore” (core services excluding housing) slowing sharply on the month to 0.22% M/M and other upside risks not materializing drove a significant rally in FI and the USD index down 1.5% for its largest daily decline since Nov 2022.
- The resumption of a softer pace of monthly inflation was confirmed two weeks later when core PCE printed 0.16% M/M after 0.315% M/M, leaving two of the past three months consistent or softer than the 2% inflation target.
- This moderation is reflected in trend rates, with both three- and six-month averages around 2.5% annualized. Trend rates for “supercore” inflation are a little stronger but have nevertheless made good progress, with the three-month at 2.8% annualized and six-month at 3.1% annualized.
- The softer momentum left the year-ago pace at 3.46% Y/Y, setting up what could be a notable undershooting of the FOMC median forecast from the September SEP of 3.7% Y/Y for 4Q23.
- CPI for November on Dec 12 could provide the
final steer, landing on day one of the two-day FOMC meeting.
Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
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