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Free AccessMacro Developments Since Nov FOMC - Inflation: Core Metrics Resume Moderation [1/2]
- The CPI report for October saw core CPI slow more than expected to 0.23% M/M (cons 0.3) after 0.32% M/M in September. It was helped by an unexpectedly large decline in hotel prices, a typically volatile item, but the “supercore” (core services excluding housing) slowing sharply on the month to 0.22% M/M and other upside risks not materializing drove a significant rally in FI and the USD index down 1.5% for its largest daily decline since Nov 2022.
- The resumption of a softer pace of monthly inflation was confirmed two weeks later when core PCE printed 0.16% M/M after 0.315% M/M, leaving two of the past three months consistent or softer than the 2% inflation target.
- This moderation is reflected in trend rates, with both three- and six-month averages around 2.5% annualized. Trend rates for “supercore” inflation are a little stronger but have nevertheless made good progress, with the three-month at 2.8% annualized and six-month at 3.1% annualized.
- The softer momentum left the year-ago pace at 3.46% Y/Y, setting up what could be a notable undershooting of the FOMC median forecast from the September SEP of 3.7% Y/Y for 4Q23.
- CPI for November on Dec 12 could provide the
final steer, landing on day one of the two-day FOMC meeting.
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Why MNI
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