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Macro Developments Since Nov FOMC - Labor: Soft Oct Payrolls and JOLTS [1/3]

US OUTLOOK/OPINION
  • The payrolls report for October kicked off the macro calendar shortly after the last FOMC decision, coming in softer than expected and with particularly large downward revisions.
  • It was a broadly dovish report, with the unemployment rate surprising higher whilst both average hourly earnings and hours worked surprised lower.
  • The JOLTS report more recently added to this dovish outlook, with job openings surprising notably lower at 8.7M which meant the ratio to unemployed fell from 1.47 to 1.34 for its lowest since Aug’21, resuming progress closer to the 1:1 ratio the Fed wants to see and the 1.2 averaged in 2019. Quits rates are already back at pre-pandemic levels.

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