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Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
US OUTLOOK/OPINION
- Friday’s latest payrolls report for November offered a partial retracement of the dovish October report though. Nonfarm payrolls growth was slightly stronger than expected at a solid 199k (aided by a net 38k of workers returning from strikes) although had softer details with private at 150k and only a partial reversal of the sharp decline in the BLS diffusion index of job gains seen in October.
- Other aspects were stronger: average hourly earnings growth was flattered by rounding but still surprised with 0.35% M/M, average hours worked reversed the October dip and the unemployment rate fell back from 3.88% to 3.74%.
- The latter left the FOMC’s forecast from the September SEP back on track, rather than looking like it was increasingly likely to have to raise its forecast next week. It also meant a move further away from triggering the Sahm recession rule, with the three-month average tracking 0.3pps above its minimum of the past twelve months, far below the 0.5 needed to trigger in contrast to its northern neighbor with Canada running at 0.7pps in latest data.
- The stronger monthly AHE print saw a stalling in the moderation seen in the three-month average rate, at 3.4% annualized after 3.0% in October (the non-supervisory category is running hotter at 4.2%) although it’s still otherwise the softest since early 2021.
- Nevertheless, the
particularly notable improvement in labor productivity in recent quarters has
meant these run rates have implied less inflationary pressure. Labor
productivity growth was even stronger than first thought in Q3 at 5.2%
annualized, building from the 3.6% in Q2 as it bounced from a decline in Q1.
Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
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