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Macro Developments Since Sep FOMC - Labor: Vacancies Jump But Quits Have Normalized [1/3]

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[The below are excerpts from the MNI Fed Preview, the full report for which can be found here]


  • Tackling the releases chronologically, JOLTS provided one of the first significant upward surprises as openings increased by easily more than expected in August (9.6M vs cons 8.8M).
  • The already known sharp increase in household unemployment in the month meant this still wasn’t enough to stop some limited further moderation in the ratio to unemployed to technically its lowest since Sep’21, although the pace has stalled at 1.5 through Jun-Aug having been at 1.8 in April.
  • Recall that the Fed is looking for close to 1 to indicate a return to pre-pandemic levels. Quit rates meanwhile tempered the beat, remaining near unchanged at 2.3% or a ‘low’ 2.6% for the private sector, both back at pre-pandemic levels.

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