NORGES: RATES PROBABLY AT CURRENT LEVEL QUITE SOME TIME

RATES MAY NEED TO BE ON HOLD LONGER THAN ENVISIONED: NORGES

MNI: NORGES BANK LEAVES RATES UNCHANGED AT 4.50%

MNI WATCH: CNB Seen Cutting 50Bps to 5.25%, Signal Slower Pace

MNI China Daily Summary: Tuesday, April 30

MNI BRIEF: China To Keep Tackling Risks In Real Estate, Debts

MNI: BAKER HUGHES US RIG COUNT 605; OIL RIGS 499; GAS RIGS 102

BoE Data Watch

RBA Data Watch

RPT-MNI: Canada Sticks To Fiscal Anchors, Spends Chunk Of Windfall

MNI BRIEF: Poilievre Calls QE 'Scam' And Would Limit BOC Remit

MNI: Growth Drag From Net Zero Carbon Goal Can Be Offset-OECD

© 1982-2023 MNI. All rights reserved.
Terms | Privacy
Log Out
Free Trial

Macro Since March FOMC - Growth: Firmer Details Behind Q1 Miss

US OUTLOOK/OPINION
Homepagemarkets-real-timeBulletMarketsFixed Income BulletsForeign Exchange Bullets
[The below is an excerpt from the full MNI Fed Preview - full note here]
  • Real GDP was softer than expected in advance Q1 data at 1.6% (cons 2.5) after 3.4% in Q4.
  • Consumer spending growth was also softer than expected at 2.5% (cons 3.0) but beyond that the downside surprises were from a larger than expected drag from net exports, courtesy of stronger imports, and changes in inventories.
  • The upshot is that final domestic demand still provided a solid contribution to real GDP growth of 2.8pps after two quarters averaging 3.6pps.
  • Combined with a rebound in import strength, it’s another quarter that doesn’t look even close to being recessionary and, as above, it’s come with a surprise uplift in core inflation.
  • Within the details, consumption has seen unusual divergence. Goods consumption is indicated particularly weak in Q1 at -0.4% considering the strength in the retail sales control group (the latest two monthly reports having helped push out Fed rate cut expectations), but services consumption accelerated to its strongest quarter since 3Q21 at +4.0%. That could further offer further concerns about the persistence of service price inflation in the months ahead.
190 words

To read the full story

Close

Why MNI

MNI is the leading provider

of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.

Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
[The below is an excerpt from the full MNI Fed Preview - full note here]
  • Real GDP was softer than expected in advance Q1 data at 1.6% (cons 2.5) after 3.4% in Q4.
  • Consumer spending growth was also softer than expected at 2.5% (cons 3.0) but beyond that the downside surprises were from a larger than expected drag from net exports, courtesy of stronger imports, and changes in inventories.
  • The upshot is that final domestic demand still provided a solid contribution to real GDP growth of 2.8pps after two quarters averaging 3.6pps.
  • Combined with a rebound in import strength, it’s another quarter that doesn’t look even close to being recessionary and, as above, it’s come with a surprise uplift in core inflation.
  • Within the details, consumption has seen unusual divergence. Goods consumption is indicated particularly weak in Q1 at -0.4% considering the strength in the retail sales control group (the latest two monthly reports having helped push out Fed rate cut expectations), but services consumption accelerated to its strongest quarter since 3Q21 at +4.0%. That could further offer further concerns about the persistence of service price inflation in the months ahead.