April 25, 2024 19:27 GMT
Macro Since March FOMC - Labor: Strong Jobs Growth ... [1/3]
US
The following posts are an excerpt from the MNI Fed Preview (full note here).
- Nonfarm payrolls growth again surprised higher in March (303k vs cons 214k) but unlike February’s beat also saw a positive two-month revision even if it was back in January.
- Chair Powell’s old estimate of 100k being a sustainable monthly pace of payrolls growth has long been dropped after strong immigration-led population growth, and indeed payrolls growth surprising almost 100k higher had less of an impact than might have been the case six months to a year ago.
- Nevertheless, markets still sold off, aided by other aspects of the establishment survey being generally more hawkish than expected.
- Average hourly wage growth nearly rounded to 0.4% M/M (0.347% vs cons 0.3), an important reading for a better sense of trend after two months of weather-induced volatility, and hours worked also surprised higher.
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