FRANCE
Minister of the Interior Gérald Darmanin and Minister for Gender Equality Aurore Bergé hailing from the centrist Renaissance party have this morning both called for the centrist Ensemble alliance supportive of President Emmanuel Macron and PM Gabriel Attal, to form an alliance with the conservative Les Republicains (LR) party (Darmanin and Bergé are both former LR members). According to figures from Le Monde, this grouping would command 214 seats in National Assembly, short of a majority but comfortably the largest alliance. This would put it in a stronger position to argue that PM Emmanuel Macron should appoint one of its figures to the position of prime minister.
- There are a number of potential obstacles to this plan. The French political tradition is not one accustomed coalition building, making any formal alliance between Ensemble and LR difficult.
- According to Le Monde, LR's price for joining with Ensemble could be steep: the office of the PM. It is unclear whether Ensemble would be willing to countenance this option, or if it would be worth paying the price in order to sit as the largest grouping.
- One of the only ways to reach a majority would be to bring in miscellaneous groups and the centre-left Socialist Party (PS). The PS sits in the leftist New Popular Front (NFP), currently the largest bloc in the Assembly. It splitting from the alliance would require significant concessions, which in turn could see the LR turn away from the coalition.
- Political paralysis is likely in the weeks and months ahead given the fairly even split between Ensemble, NFP and the right-wing nationalist National Rally (RN).
Chart 1. National Assembly with Hypothetical Majority Gov't
Source: Le Monde
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