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MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
FRANCE
First round opinion polling ahead of France's presidential election - taking place exactly two months from today - remains too close to call who will face off against incumbent President Emmanuel Macron in the likely event he makes the run-off.
- Over the last 10 opinion polls, Macron has led in all with his average support standing at 24.5%. The three candidates most likely to make the second round alongside Macron are centre-right Les Republicains nominee Valerie Pecresse, right-wing nationalist Rassemblement National leader Marine Le Pen, and far-right polemicist Eric Zemmour. In the last 10 polls Le Pen has averaged 16.9% support, Pecresse 15.5%, and Zemmour 14.4%. Even far-left La France Insoumise leader Jean-Luc Melenchon averages 10.1% and should not be considered totally out of the running.
- For Macron the preferred scenario would be facing off against one of the far-left or far-right candidates and relying on the 'republican front' of votes, where centrist/centre-left/centre-right voters back the moderate - whichever their party - in order to keep the far right out of power.
- However, against the centre-right Pecresse, Macron could face a very difficult challenge given his low approval ratings (standing at around 35%). Against a conservative Macron would not be able to rely on the 'republican front' and could face being ousted after a term in office.
Chart 1. France First Round Opinion Polling, % and 6-Poll Moving Average
Source: Opinion Way, Ifop-Fiducial, Elabe, Harris Interactive, Cluster17, Ipsos, BVA, MNI
Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
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