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Main Opposition DA Could Prop Up ANC Post-2024 Election-BBG

SOUTH AFRICA
EM BulletHomepagemarkets-real-timePolitical RiskPolitical Risk BulletBulletEmerging Markets NewsPolitical Market News

Bloomberg reporting that the main opposition centrist Democratic Alliance (DA) could prop up a minority gov't under the incumbent centre-left African National Congress (ANC) should President Cyril Ramaphosa's party fall short of a majority in the National Assembly for the first time since the end of apartheid.

  • Should the ANC's vote share dip well below 50% it would likely require outside support. This could come from the DA, seen as broadly pro-business and liberal, or the far-left ultranationalist Economic Freedom Fighters (EFF) of Julius Malema.
  • The inclusion of the DA in a governing coalition could see it try to drag the ANC towards the political and economic centre ground, encouraging liberalising reforms to encourage investment in jobs and infrastructure. An ANC-DA tie up post-2024 could prove fragile but would likely be cheered by markets.
  • The flip side of the ANC losing its majority would be the risk of it forming an agreement with the EFF. The party advocates for the nationalisation of mines, land, and other privately-owned assets. If the EFF were in gov't or propped up a minority ANC administration it could see a sharp deterioration in the country's business environment.
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Bloomberg reporting that the main opposition centrist Democratic Alliance (DA) could prop up a minority gov't under the incumbent centre-left African National Congress (ANC) should President Cyril Ramaphosa's party fall short of a majority in the National Assembly for the first time since the end of apartheid.

  • Should the ANC's vote share dip well below 50% it would likely require outside support. This could come from the DA, seen as broadly pro-business and liberal, or the far-left ultranationalist Economic Freedom Fighters (EFF) of Julius Malema.
  • The inclusion of the DA in a governing coalition could see it try to drag the ANC towards the political and economic centre ground, encouraging liberalising reforms to encourage investment in jobs and infrastructure. An ANC-DA tie up post-2024 could prove fragile but would likely be cheered by markets.
  • The flip side of the ANC losing its majority would be the risk of it forming an agreement with the EFF. The party advocates for the nationalisation of mines, land, and other privately-owned assets. If the EFF were in gov't or propped up a minority ANC administration it could see a sharp deterioration in the country's business environment.