Mainland GDP In Line With Consensus But Above Norges Bank MPR Forecast

Norwegian Q1 mainland GDP was 0.2% Q/Q, in line with consensus expectations but above the March MPR forecast of 0.0%. Q4’s reading was revised a tenth higher to 0.3%.

• The monthly GDP indicator had indicated upside risks to the Norges Bank’s forecast over the first three months of the year.
• Household consumption fell 0.7% Q/Q. Goods consumption fell 2.2% Q/Q, largely due to a sharp fall in motor vehicle purchases. Services consumption rose 0.2% Q/Q.
• Gross fixed capital investment also fell sharply, at -7.3% Q/Q, though Statistics Norway notes that this series can be volatile, and the current data is preliminary at this stage.
• Net exports also contributed to the downside, with exports rising 0.4% Q/Q but imports rising 1.0% Q/Q.
• Employment growth was 0.3% Q/Q, above the Q1 Regional Network Survey’s expectation of 0.1%. However, total employed persons were essentially in line with the Norges Bank’s March MPR forecast.
• Hours worked rose 0.5% Q/Q. This suggests that real productivity per hour worked was a negative contributor to Q1 mainland GDP growth.
• Overall GDP rose 0.2% Q/Q as well, with Q4’s reading also revised a tenth higher to 1.6% Q/Q.
• A reminder that there will be no monthly GDP indicator releases for April, May, July or August, due to the audit of the Norwegian National Accounts this year.