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Major Mideast Refinery Expansions Bearish for Margins: BNEF

OIL PRODUCTS

The continued ramp up of oil processing capacities in the Middle East could be bearish for global refining margins, while limited its upside for crude, BNEF said.

  • Fuel markets must absorb the increase in oil product supplies with 928k b/d of CDU capacity scheduled to come online by the end of 2024, BNEF added.
  • Global refining throughput is likely to tick up, as capacity returning from maintenance, particularly in the Middle East offsets run cuts driven by current refinery economics.
  • Additional and returning capacity from the likes of Kuwait, Oman, and Iraq has already weakened international refining margins in Q2, with the impact more pronounced in Asia.
  • Should refinery ramp ups remain on track, gains in plant operations will continue to add to global fuel supplies in H2.
  • Yet, new refining capacity could add further demand for crude as OPEC+ members redirect their products to domestic refiners.

Source: Bloomberg

Source: Bloomberg

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