Malaysia's Political Chaos Lingers On

Speculation about the future of PM Muhyiddin's cabinet has been doing the rounds since UMNO President Zahid dropped the bombshell, announcing the withdrawal of support for the government. Despite Muhyiddin's meetings with some key cabinet members, it remains unclear if anti-Bersatu quarters within UMNO will be able to bring him down.

• In a leaked audio recording from Wednesday's UMNO Supreme Council meeting, Zahid can allegedly be heard saying that UMNO MPs will be able to vote according to decide at their own discretion, should Muhyiddin face a no-confidence vote. UMNO Secretary General later said publicly (rather ambiguously) that MPs will be free to vote as they please, but they must observe party guidance. Sources interviewed by Malaysiakini suggested that MPs "will be given some leeway on how they vote."
• UMNO Vice-President and new Deputy Prime Minister Ismail Sabri declined to comment on UMNO Supreme Council's decision. He told journalists that "what I want to do is to work as usual" and he is yet to discuss the matter with the Premier. Meanwhile, UMNO members issued conflicting statements on whether the Council's decision was unanimous.
• UMNO currently has 38 MPs, which makes it the largest parliamentary party. The press circulated a letter issued by MPs from UMNO-led Barisan Nasional alliance in support of PM Muhyiddin, but ex-PM Najib disputed its authenticity. Separately, veteran lawmaker Aziz suggested that 32 MPs from UMNO were ready to stand by PM Muhyiddin.
• The question whether PM Muhyiddin can still command the support of the majority of lawmakers is unlikely to be settled in the coming days. Most political analysts seem to doubt whether Zahid and his faction will be able to oust Muhyiddin during the special parliamentary sitting this month.
• A political analyst from Sunway University told the Straits Times that tabling a motion of no confidence during this month's shortened session "is a dead end as long as the Speaker can hold the fort for the government." It is also unclear how many UMNO MPs are ready to abandon Muhyiddin at this point. At the minimum, Zahid's faction may allow Muhyiddin to stay at the helm of minority government, hindering his ability to enact policies.