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PMIs Show Recession Risks Rising As Manufacturing Stalls

GLOBAL
MNI (London)

Today's August PMI releases underline a continued slowdown across global manufacturing. The global JPM PMI slowed to 50.3 from 51.1,signaling that manufacturing activity all but stalled last month. A few signals that we see from the developed markets PMI data:

  • Global growth is clearly slowing and risks of outright recession are rising. High inflation rates are cutting investment and consumer spending. Meanwhile, lingering supply constraints have been worsened by Chinese lockdowns and the Ukraine war.
  • Weaker demand is translating into lower new orders and production.
  • Europe remains weak but perhaps not as much as feared. German PMI managed to stabilise at a marginally contractive level, but only France experienced an uptick back into (modestly) expansionary territory. Both Italy and Spain recorded contractions and overall Eurozone PMI hit a fresh 26-month low.
  • One of the sharpest downturns was recorded in the UK, with foreign demand plunging. The contraction appears lagged by one month compared to other major economies.
  • Japan, the US and Australia recorded modest month/month reductions, though remaining in expansive territory.

Source: MNI / Bloomberg / JP Morgan / ISM

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