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Manufacturing Sentiment Softens, Export Expectations Dip

SOUTH KOREA

The October BoK manufacturing and service business sentiment readings were mixed. On the manufacturing side the headline index slipped to 67, from 69 in September. We are above earlier 2023 lows of 65, but only at the margin.

  • Most of the detail was softer relative to the September read. New orders fell to 73 from 75, while inventories climbed to 106 from 102. Domestic sale expectations also slipped.
  • The export outlook fell noticeably, back to 62 from 66 in September. This puts the export index back to March lows.
  • The chart below overlays this index against South Korea y/y export growth. It is not suggesting much of a rebound at this stage.

Fig 1: South Korean Manufacturers Export Expectations & Exports Y/Y

Source: MNI - Market News/Bloomberg/BOK

  • Sentiment was better in the services or non-manufacturing side. We ticked up to 77 in October from 76 in September. Most of the sub-indices improved, although we are comfortably below 2022 highs.

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