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March 2021 FOMC Minutes Preview: Sell-Side Outlooks (2/2)

FED
  • Deutsche is "most interested in the discussion around the Fed's reaction function in the coming years and insights into the forecast by a majority of officials for keeping rates at zero at least until 2024." Additionally, Deutsche will pay attention to the debate about the inflation outlook, "and latest views on what constitutes "substantial further progress" to initiate tapering, where Powell's guidance was limited to 'until we give a signal, you can assume we're not there yet. And as we approach it, well in advance...we will give a signal that yes, we're on a path to...consider tapering.' "
  • Citinotes that "Powell indicated in the post-meeting press conference that the pace of rehiring will be a key input to the decision to taper asset purchases. Minutes may confirm if this is a broadly held view".
  • ING doubts the minutes "will show cracks in the dovish consensus" on the FOMC.
  • BMO FICC: "What many will hope to learn from the Minutes is the degree to which [vaccine rollout] progress has brought forward estimates of communicating a tapering of bond buying. We are less convinced March was the meeting that began that conversation, but with the memory of the taper tantrum still fresh in the mind of the central bank, it follows that communication on the topic will be carried out with the utmost care."
  • NatWest expects the minutes to repeat the dovish theme of the SEP and Powell's press conference "although we suspect, in general, the minutes may not sound quite as dovish."
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