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March CPI Registers Slightly Above Median Surveyed Estimates

COLOMBIA
  • March inflation data for Colombia came in marginally above expectation late Friday, however confirmed the ongoing process of disinflation, with the annual headline reading slowing to its lowest level since January 2022. The data was as follows:
    • CPI rose 0.7% m/m (est +0.68%) vs +1.09% in Feb
    • CPI rose 7.36% y/y (est +7.35%) vs +7.74% in Feb
    • Core CPI rose 0.69% m/m (est +0.65%) vs +1.22% in Feb
    • Core CPI rose 8.76% y/y (est +8.73%) vs +9.2% in Feb
  • Data is broadly seen as confirming the likelihood of additional monetary policy easing ahead and might support the finance ministry’s call for bolder interest rate cuts to revive the weak growth outlook. JPMorgan forecast headline CPI converging to 5.2 %oya and in the near term, expect additional upward pressure from fresh food and likely gasoline prices (on higher oil), though mitigated by the currency strength. JPM expect another 50bp rate cut later this month.
  • Separately, Goldman Sachs have noted that headline inflation is likely to hit a speed bump in 2Q2024 on the back of less favourable base effects, resuming its downwards but slow trend thereafter. They maintain their above-consensus end-2024 forecast of 5.8%, and their base case for a cautious cutting cycle—with 50bp cuts in upcoming MPC meetings.
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