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March CPI Supports Idea Of A May Rate Cut

SWEDEN

Swedish March CPIF ex-energy was below consensus at 2.9% Y/Y (vs 3.2% cons, 3.5% prior). The Riksbank had forecasted 3.3% Y/Y in the March MPR.

  • Inflation was flat M/M NSA (vs 0.3% cons, 0.6% prior).
  • This will likely provide the Riksbank with sufficient confidence that policy rates can be cut in May, before the Fed and ECB.
  • The SEK weakened post-release, but EURSEK and NOKSEK remain below yesterday’s highs.
  • The SEK moves were limited as a May cut was already more than 50% priced by markets ahead of the data.
  • An unexpected weakening of the SEK between now and the May 8 meeting could still prompt some caution amongst the Executive Board, but conditions for rate cuts appear to have been met from a domestic standpoint.
  • MNI’s seasonal adjustment shows CPIF ex-energy -0.1% M/M (vs 0.1% prior), while inflation momentum moderated across 1/3/6-month horizons.
  • Component-level data shows the food and non-alcoholic beverages component falling 0.7% M/M and Y/Y NSA.
  • There were also moderations in the annual rate of several goods (clothing/footwear, furniture and household equipment) and services (recreation and culture, restaurants and hotels) components.
  • This suggests March’s disinflation was broad-based.






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