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Market Commentary Focuses On Rising Cases, Limited Impact To Growth

LATAM
  • Goldman Sachs: The acceleration in new cases has been most notable in Argentina where cases are growing and accelerating at the fastest rate since the pandemic began. However, Mexico, Colombia, Ecuador, and Peru are also experiencing elevated spread, with the rate of contagion rising speedily. The number of reported cases has also been on the rise in Brazil; however, the official case-count likely understates the actual severity of the situation due to a cyber-attack that hampered the country’s Covid data reporting systems.
    • Going forward, the rise in cases is likely to weigh on activity in the near-term as voluntary and mandated selected business and mobility restrictions are reintroduced. However, the relatively moderate risk of hospitalization and fatality, as well as reduced policy-maker appetite for stringent measures and further progress on vaccination should limit the impact on activity.
  • Scotiabank: As the new year begins, rising COVID-19 caseloads from the omicron variant reanimate concerns that another wave of the pandemic could set back economic recovery.
    • Preliminary indications across the region suggest that the economic effects of the latest wave of infections could be contained, notwithstanding the highly- transmissible nature of the omicron variant. Nevertheless, even in that felicitous scenario, an old challenge of raising long-term growth in the region remains. Addressing that challenge should be a key policy priority for policy makers.

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