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Market Continues To Price In Earlier Rate Hikes

POLAND
  • Poland will revamp its system for disciplining judges in an attempt to end a legal dispute with the European Union, according to the country's de facto leader Jaroslaw Kaczynski. The country has until Aug. 16 to comply with a ruling by the EU's top court to "immediately suspend" the regime, which critics say is aimed at punishing judges who are critical of the the ruling Law & Justice party. The government will in September propose changes to the system to make it more effective, according to Kaczynski (BBG).
  • Last week, NBP policymaker Eryk Lon wrote in an article that interest rate increases could be considered if the November projection shows that inflation would remain above the 3.5% upper tolerance band for an alarmingly long period.
  • At this stage, the majority of the NBP board (including Governor Glapinski) still aims to keep interest rates low while the economic recovery is taking place as the uncertainty remains elevated.
  • However, traders have been speculating that the NBP will hike earlier than expected as forward rates have been rising in the past week following the positive surprise in inflation; FRA 6Mx9M is currently trading 54bps above Wibor 3M, up from 18bps in mid-July.
  • There are no important economic data coming out today.
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