Free Trial

Market Inflation Expectations Holding Firm

US
  • Little change on balance in market long-term inflation expectations today.
  • The 5Y5Y forward breakeven nudges up to 2.39%, close to the average for the past two weeks.
  • The 5Y5Y inflation swap is more volatile as it slowly trends higher but at 2.66% remains almost 10bps off previous highs.
  • Data ahead: Core PCE (cons +0.4% M/M after +0.5%) and the price/supply side components within the MNI Chicago PMI tomorrow, before of course payrolls on Fri after the surprising pause in wage growth in Feb.

5y5y forward breakeven (yellow), 5y5y inflation swap (green) and Fed Funds implied rate after Dec'22 meeting (purple)Source: Bloomberg

To read the full story

Close

Why MNI

MNI is the leading provider

of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.

Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.