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Market Pricing Shows Near Even Odds Of 50bp BoE Hike Tomorrow

STIR

The BoE-dated OIS strip adjusts higher and steepens in reaction to the firmer than expected CPI data, showing just under a 50% chance of 50bp hike at tomorrow’s meeting. Meanwhile, terminal pricing has pushed beyond the 6.00% mark for the first time since the blowback from the mini-Budget, topping 6.10% in BoE policy rate terms.


BoE MeetingSONIA BoE-Dated OIS (%)Difference Vs. Current Effective SONIA Rate (bp)
Jun-234.792+36.4
Aug-235.230+80.2
Sep-235.526+109.8
Nov-235.752+132.4
Dec-235.939+151.1
Feb-246.038+161.0
Mar-246.030+160.2

Source: MNI - Market News/Bloomberg

MNI London Bureau | +44 0203-865-3809 | anthony.barton@marketnews.com

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