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Market Roundup: Ceasefire Optimism Presents Added Risk-On Move

US TSYS
Tsy futures weaker, off midmorning highs as equities have started ratcheting modestly higher/session high for SPX eminis at 4484.75 (still off Wed's overnight high of 4513.25). Whippy two-way trade with recent risk-on move tied to tweet re: optimism over Russia/Ukraine cease fire.
  • Yield curves mixed, long end flatter with 30YY +.0635 at 2.5476% vs. 2.4926% low. Note, 5s10s remains inverted: -3.145 (-.179). Translation: uncertainty over pricing in forward policy (or confidence in Fed managing a soft landing) that is also inducing inversion in Eurodollar futures from EDM3 through EDM6.
  • Rates presses earlier on rate-lock selling after Home Depot announced a 5pt jumbo debt issuance from 3s-30s, details TBA.
  • Current cross asset: West Texas Crude (WTI) weaker: -$0.93 at $114.00; Gold + $18.29 (0.94%) at $1962.43.
  • Technicals for TYM2: Attention is on Wed’s 122-12 low where a break would again confirm a resumption of the downtrend (today's TYM2 low at 122-16.5). This would also maintain the bearish price sequence of lower lows and low highs that clearly highlights current sentiment and would open 122-00.
  • Flipside: Firm resistance is seen at 125-07+, the 20-day EMA. Initial resistance is seen at 123-25+, the Mar 16 low and this week’s breakout level.
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