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Market Roundup: Fresh Cycle Lows, Curves Reverse

US TSYS
Tsy futures trading weaker, nearing early London lows, slightly stronger than forecasted Housing Starts and Building Permits for March contributing.
  • Yield curves, meanwhile, have reversed late overnight steepening, extending flatter amid heavy selling in short end since the open: 2YY surging to 2.5562% from 2.4273% low. 2s10s curve hit inverted low of -9.561 two weeks ago topped out at 42.897 this morning.
  • Blocks contributing (-2s/ultra bond, outright sale 2s) as recession concerns, ability of Fed to engineer a soft landing being sapped after leading hawk StL Fed Bullard opened dialog on chance of 75bp hike at May 4 FOMC late Monday.
  • IMF joins World bank opinion from late Monday: knock-on effect of Russia invasion reducing global growth/increase inflation forecasts.
  • Fresh cycle low of 119-02.5 for TYM2, outlook remains bearish; the move lower has confirmed a resumption of the primary downtrend and an extension of the bearish price sequence of lower lows and lower highs. TYM2 broke 119-04.5 support (Dec 3 '18 low) opens next support of 118-02+ 0.618 proj of the Mar 7 - 28 - 31 price swing.
  • Cross-assets: Gold sinks to 1961.4 (-17.5) after nearly topping $2000 Mon. Crude prices weaker, WTI -3.17 at 105.04.
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