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Market Roundup: Hike Fast, But Don't Break Anything: Barkin

US TSYS
US Tsy yields see-saw higher upon return from Juneteenth holiday Tuesday, 30YY off morning high of 3.3860% at 3.3593% (+.0798) w/ futures near middle of first half range.
  • Yield curves bear steepening, but still well off pre-FOMC levels: 2s10s +4.775 at 8.641, 5s10s still inverted at -8.801 (3.172) but well off early low (-12.223).
  • Limited impact from data: Existing Home Sales for May in-line: -3.4% TO 5.41M SAAR; Chicago Fed National Activity Index 0.01 vs. 0.47 expected, 0.4 prior. Attention turns to Richmond Fed Barkin as he takes part in virtual moderated Q&A session w/ NABE at the top of the hour: "need to raise rates fast .. without breaking anything", sounds professional.
  • US 10Y futures TYU2, trade -8.5 at 115-29.5 last vs. 115-22.5 low on heavier volume (>940k). Despite the recovery from last week’s low of 114-07+, the trend needle in Treasuries still points south.
  • Last week’s break of key support at 116-21, May 9 low, confirmed a resumption of the primary downtrend and maintains the bearish price sequence of lower lows and lower highs. The move lower opens 114-00 next. Firm resistance is seen at 117-12, the 20-day EMA. A stronger bounce would be considered corrective.
  • Stocks posting decent gains, SPX eminis +103.0 at 3778.75; oil up, WTI +2.57 at 112.12; Gold steady at 1838.75.
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