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Market Roundup: Whipsaw Trade

US TSYS
Tsys having a fairly volatile morning, revisiting early overnight lows (USU2 135-13) in the minutes ahead the equity open to topping overnight highs in the last few minutes (USH2 136-16 +1-11).
  • Similarly, yield curves moving around a bit as well, 2s10s now flatter by 3.157 at 2.631 after hitting 7.177 earlier. US 10Y Sep futures currently 117-10.5 (+20) - Key short-term resistance has been defined at 118-08, the Jun 24 high where a break is required to signal a resumption of recent gains. This would open the 50-day EMA, at 118-17+
  • Domestic and foreign data, not to mention Fed speak in play. Tsys see-sawed higher after Q1 GDP declines slightly more than expected (-1.6% vs. -1.5% est).
  • Rates gapped higher overnight following much weaker than expected German CPI for North Rhine (0.1% MoM; EST 0.9%; 7.5% YoY; EST 8.1%). Tsys gradually moderated ahead the NY open, blipped higher after prelim German CPI gained less than anticipated (+0.1% MoM vs. +0.4%).
  • Fed Chair Powell at ECB forum in Sintra: Hard to hike rates "without a hit to growth" or boosting unemployment. “There’s no guarantee that we can do that,” Powell said. “It’s something that’s going to be quite challenging.” The Fed raised rates by 75 basis points this month and has signaled substantial further increases to come.
  • Cleveland Fed Mester up next at 1130ET on panel discussion/ECB Forum.
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