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Market Roundup: Paring Gains, Mixed Data, Chicago PMI Contractionary

US TSYS
Tsys steady/mixed in late morning trade, near session lows after testing late overnight highs in early trade, curves bouncing off flatter levels (2s10s -1.617 at -42.920 vs. -49.174 low). Tsys followed Gilts lead as they broke narrow range in early London trade, month-end extensions also cited for the move.
  • Mixed early data reacts has rates holding inside session' range. Fast two-way trade saw Tsys and equities extended lows as inflation metric remains hot: Core PCE 0.6% MoM vs. 0.5% est, 4.9% YoY, unrounded +0.562%.
  • Knee jerk bid in 10s before support evaporated after midmorning Chicago PMI came out lower than expected - contractionary w/ sub-50 business barometer read of 45.7 vs. 52.2 in August. The 6.5pt slide to 45.7 in the Chicago PMI, which has closely tracked recent ISM movements, adds support for a sub-50 ISM reading, contrary to consensus for a decline from 52.8 to 52.4 for Monday's report.
  • Technical view for TYZ2 at 112-18 (+3.5): Treasuries remain vulnerable and short-term gains are considered corrective. Recent weakness has reinforced current bearish trend conditions w/ price sequence of lower lows and lower highs and bearish moving average studies clearly highlight the market's sentiment. The focus is on 109-20, a lower moving average band value. Initial resistance is 112-30+, the Sep 23 high.
  • Cross-asset snapshot: stocks bouncing off lows, SPX eminis +26.0 at 3680.25, Gold firmer +12.60 at 1673.14, Crude holding paring midweek gains w/ WTI -0.84 at 80.39, US$ index -.240 at 112.013 (while GBP sits at 1.1146 after tapping 1.1234 high).
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