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US TSYS
Tsys having another whip-saw session, weaker across the board again but off early lows (30YY 3.6364% +.0427), yield curves paring earlier moves (2s10s +.538 at -68.421). Robust volumes on two-way trade (TYH3>730k).
  • Equities seeing similar action, S&P eminis paring gains on modest sell-program is holding near steady (strong airlines and autos lent to early bid).
  • Tsys extend lows (30YY taps3.662% high) before bouncing slightly after Q4 GDP climbs 2.9% (annual rate) - higher than estimated 2.6%, The real GDP beat for the Q4 advance was much less flattering in the details, heavily boosted by changes in inventories swinging from -1.2 to +1.5pps. Weekly claims lower than exp at 186k vs. 205k est, Core Durables beat and New Home Sales stabilized.
  • Focus turns to Friday's personal income (+0.1% vs. +0.4%) and spending (-0.3% vs. +0.1%) release, last component ahead next week Wed's FOMC policy annc.
  • Meanwhile, Fed funds implied hike for Feb'23 at 26.1bp (+.4), Mar'23 cumulative 46.6bp (+1.0) to 4.798%, May'23 56.6bp (+1.6) to 4.897%, terminal at 4.905% in Jun'23.

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