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Market Roundup: Deflation Accelerating, 50Bp Hike Still Expected Wed

US TSYS
Tsys still well bid, but off post data highs on decent two-way flow after the lower than expected Nov CPI (0.1% vs. 0.3% est, core 0.2%). Yield curves well off deeper inversion (2s10s +4.508 at -72.928) as inflation metric recedes.
  • Appetite for risk improved as core goods deflation accelerated, falling 0.5% in the month and its weakest since April 2020. Core services inflation also slowed to 0.4%, a still-robust print but one that's a four-month low.
  • Still Expecting 50Bp Hike tomorrow while mid-'23 Terminal Dips - Fed funds implied hike for Dec'22 back to 52.9bp, while Feb'23 cumulative currently 84.1bp (91.5bp earlier) to 4.666%, Mar'23 97.7bp (108.0bp earlier) to 4.802%, while Fed terminal rate for May'23-Jun'23 falls to 4.845% vs. 4.97% pre-data.
  • Heavy volumes in the well bid SOFR futures (far outpacing Eurodollar futures), w/ Reds (SFRZ3-SFRU4) trading +0.240-0.195 higher.
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