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Market Roundup: Nov-Dec CPI Revision Little Hotter, Jan CPI Next Tue

US TSYS
Tsys holding near session lows in afternoon trade, yield curves see steepening relief after 2s10s fell to lowest inverted levels in 40 yrs Thu (-87.193), currently +5.387 at -77.442 (-76.407 high).
  • Knock on pressure after Canada employment data came out much stronger than expected (+150k vs. +15k est), underscoring CB bank messaging this week to continue to hike rates (data dependent) until inflation meets targets.
  • Session focus on BLS Seasonal Adjustment revisions to CPI. Core CPI inflation running 0.1pps hotter in M/M terms in both Nov and Dec at 0.31% and 0.40% M/M respectively, with a weaker than first thought period in the spring.
  • However, potentially supporting the muted market reaction to the annual revision is that most of this recent strength came through core goods.
  • Muted react to UofM February Consumer Sentiment of 66.4 vs. 65. est, 64.9 prior.
  • No react to midday comments from Philly Fed Harker: favours getting rates above 5% and then pausing (previously slightly above 5%). In other comments, he sees it “more probable now” that we can pull off a soft landing, with a good chance of doing so if inflation keeps easing.
  • Focus turns to Jan CPI next Tue: MoM (0.1% rev, 0.5%); YoY 6.5%, 6.2%).
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