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Market Roundup: Potential Less Hawks in the Roost?

US TSYS
Tsy futures trading steady/mixed again, off recent highs the last few minutes while equities scale back support as well (ESH3 +11.0 4010). Several underlying factors to consider for whip-saw action this morning includes mixed data considered bond bearish on net.
  • Tsys gap bid after headlines that WH narrowing choices over Fed Gov Brainard: "GOOLSBEE, DALY, CARPENTER ALSO UNDER SERIOUS CONSIDERATION" Bbg. Desks see less hawks in the roost as bond positive.
  • Some trading desks suggest early month-end positioning a factor, though hard to tell with massive March/June Tsy futures roll volume so far (TYH/TYM>1.3M already, TYH3 total volume >2.2M) as well as large curve flattener Block (-38,200 TUM3 102-01.62, sell through 102-03 post-time bid vs. +20,200 TYM3 111-21 post-time offer) and outright selling in 2s.
  • Rate locks and pre-auction short sets into support: corporate bond issuance returns after plying sidelines ahead morning data; US Tsy $35B 7Y note auction this afternoon.
  • Coming up: Atl Fed Bostic on Fed role in banking system, no text, Q&A, live-streamed at 1050ET, SF Fed Daly virtual chat on Banking system later at 1400ET.
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